US dollar weakens, base metals generally rise, alumina posts three consecutive losses, polysilicon and SHFE gold lead the declines [SMM midday review]

SMM June 9 News:

Metal Market:

As of the midday close, domestic market base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper fell 0.2%, SHFE zinc dropped 0.54%, SHFE aluminum declined 0.22%, SHFE lead rose 0.3%, SHFE tin increased 0.13%, and SHFE nickel gained 0.58%.

In addition, alumina extended its losing streak from the previous two trading sessions, falling another 1.84%. Lithium carbonate dropped 0.33%, silicon metal rose 0.21%, and polysilicon fell 2.06%.

The ferrous metals series mostly fell, with iron ore declining 0.35%, rebar remaining flat at 2,982 yuan/mt, HRC falling 0.1%, and stainless steel dropping 0.47%. In the coking coal and coke sector: coking coal rose 0.13%, and coke fell 0.85%.

In the overseas metal market, as of 11:43, LME metals generally rose. LME zinc remained flat at $2,666/mt, LME copper rose slightly, LME aluminum increased 0.2%, LME lead gained 0.1%, LME tin rose 0.38%, and LME nickel increased 0.41%.

In the precious metals sector, as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.6%, and COMEX silver dropped 0.01%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 1.59%, and SHFE silver rose 0.69%. Data released by the PBOC on Saturday showed that China's gold reserves at the end of May stood at 73.83 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons), up 60,000 ounces (approximately 1.86 tons) MoM, marking the seventh consecutive month of gold reserve increases.

As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the European container shipping index fell 2.64% to 2,063.8.

As of 11:43 on June 9, midday futures market movements for some contracts:

》SMM Metal Spot Prices on June 9

Spot and Fundamentals

Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to a premium of 120 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average premium of 55 yuan/mt, up 55 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt to a discount of 50 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 78,660 yuan/mt, down 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 78,545 yuan/mt, down 145 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot Market: Guangdong's inventory continued to decline after the weekend, marking the third consecutive day of decline, primarily due to reduced arrivals... 》Click for details

Macro Front

Domestic Aspect:

[General Administration of Customs: China's Foreign Trade in Goods Grew 2.5% in the First Five Months, with Exports Up 6.3% YoY in May]The General Administration of Customs announced today (9th) that in the first five months of this year, China's total foreign trade in goods reached 17.94 trillion yuan, up 2.5% YoY, continuing the growth trend. In May, China's total imports and exports reached RMB 3.81 trillion, up 2.7% YoY. In the same month, China's exports amounted to RMB 2.28 trillion, a 6.3% YoY increase. Specifically, exports to ASEAN, the EU, Africa, and the five Central Asian countries grew by 16.9%, 13.7%, 35.3%, and 8.8% respectively. In the first five months of this year, China's exports of equipment manufacturing products reached RMB 6.22 trillion, up 9.2% YoY, accounting for 58.3% of China's total export value. Among them, exports of EVs increased by 19%, construction machinery by 10.7%, ships by 18.9%, and industrial robots by 55.4%. In the first five months, China's equipment manufacturing products contributed 73% to the overall export growth, with the contribution rate reaching as high as 76.9% in May, providing strong support for the steady growth of foreign trade.》Click for details

[National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): CPI slightly decreased in May, core CPI YoY growth expanded, PPI MoM decreased by 0.4%]In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% MoM and 0.1% YoY. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.6% YoY, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 0.4% MoM, the same as the previous month, and decreased by 3.3% YoY, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. China is boosting consumption with greater intensity and more targeted measures, fostering the growth of new quality productive forces, improving the supply-demand relationship in some sectors, and leading to positive changes in prices.》Click for details

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted RMB 173.8 billion in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous session. As there were no reverse repos maturing today, a net injection of RMB 173.8 billion was achieved.

►On June 9, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1855 RMB per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell by 0.18% to 99.04. The US Department of Labor announced that the US economy added 139,000 new jobs in May, exceeding analysts' expectations, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. Wage growth also exceeded expectations, reducing the likelihood of an imminent interest rate cut. The market has scaled back its bets on interest rate cuts and now expects one in October. Meanwhile, US President Trump stated that he would soon announce his decision on the next Fed Chairman, saying that a "good Fed Chairman" would lower interest rates. The market expects the US Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its June 17-18 meeting, with policymakers assessing how tariffs will affect the economy. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, federal funds rate futures traders currently expect a 61% probability that the US Fed will cut interest rates by September or earlier, compared to 74% on Thursday.

In other currency news:

Switzerland may become the first major economy to return to negative interest rates to combat currency appreciation and falling prices, highlighting the dilemma of rapidly depleting traditional policy tools among central banks worldwide amid ongoing global trade wars. Data shows that Swiss consumer prices fell in May, prompting traders to prepare for the Swiss National Bank to lower its benchmark interest rate of 0.25% below zero, as it strives to cool the overheated Swiss franc. (Huitong Finance)

Data highlights:

Today, leading indicators for the turning point in the global industrial production cycle in May, the final value of the US wholesale inventory monthly rate for April, the 1-year and 3-year inflation expectations of the New York Fed for May, and other data will be released. Additionally, it is noteworthy that at the invitation of the UK government, He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will visit the UK from June 8 to 13. During the visit, the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism will be held with the US side.

Crude oil update:

As of 11:43, crude oil futures fluctuated rangebound, with US crude oil down 0.14% and Brent crude oil down 0.12%. The market awaits trade negotiations to be held later in London.

Last week's better-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data and the promising outlook for trade agreements that benefit oil demand overshadowed market concerns about increased OPEC supply. After OPEC announced a significant production increase for July on May 31, HSBC said in a research report released on Friday that it expects OPEC to accelerate supply increases in August and September. HSBC forecasts that Brent crude's target price of $65 per barrel from the fourth quarter of 2025 onwards will face more downside risks. Capital Economics said in a research report that it believes OPEC's new accelerated production pace will continue. (Webstock Inc.)

Spot market overview:

►Inventories continued to decline after the weekend, with suppliers actively refusing to budge on prices while selling [SMM South China Copper Spot]

►Producers' willingness to sell increased, and market trading activity picked up [SMM North China Copper Spot]

►Tianjin zinc: Overall trading was poor, and premiums continued to decline [SMM Midday Review]

►SHFE tin was boosted by ore supply tightness and macro sentiment in the short term, but the off-season demand and inventory pressure limited the rebound height [SMM Tin Midday Review]

►[SMM Iron Ore Shipping Data] Global shipments and port arrivals rebounded slightly MoM

Midday reviews of other metal spot prices will be updated later. Please refresh to view.